No safe havens: Navigating the new global disorder

If your business strategy is anchored in certainties, you risk becoming adrift in perilous waters.

The global order is undergoing a profound transformation. The certainties that once anchored international politics and economics are giving way to volatility, complexity, and fragmentation. While some argue that the old order still dominates, others suggest we are already in a new phase, characterised not by a single hegemon, but by contested influence, emergent powers, and increasingly regionalised spheres of control.

For businesses, this represents both a risk-laden environment and a fertile landscape for strategic recalibration.

One of the clearest indicators of this shift is the relative decline of U.S. global leadership. The return of Donald Trump to the presidency in 2025 has intensified an “America First” posture, disrupting multilateralism, heightening tariff threats, and reducing the predictability of U.S. alliances.

The global reaction has not been a passive wait-and-see, but a pivot towards diversification. BRICS+, for instance, has expanded its influence, with countries like Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Egypt seeking alternatives to Western-led institutions. Meanwhile, the EU and ASEAN are accelerating efforts to hedge against U.S. and Chinese dependencies by pursuing more autonomous economic strategies.

Simultaneously, China continues to advance its strategic goals despite economic headwinds. Its “Global Security Initiative” and Belt and Road revamp are instruments not just of infrastructure diplomacy, but of shaping a new international narrative. Technology—particularly artificial intelligence and digital finance—is further destabilising traditional levers of state power. Blockchain-based transactions and growing de-dollarisation efforts are loosening the U.S. dollar’s dominance in global trade. Russia and China’s increasing use of local currencies in bilateral trade is one early signal of this shift.

Strategic implications

This is not merely a story of new powers replacing old ones. Instead, we are entering a multipolar era of diffuse and contested power. Governance is fragmented. Multilateral institutions struggle to adapt, while informal coalitions—like the Quad or I2U2—gain traction. The Red Sea shipping disruptions in early 2025 highlighted how non-state actors and regional conflicts can cascade into global supply chain shocks, bypassing traditional diplomatic and security mechanisms.

For businesses, the strategic implications are significant:

1.     Risk recalibration: Boardrooms must move from linear risk models to dynamic, scenario-based planning. Traditional assumptions, such as stable market access, currency predictability, or geopolitical neutrality, no longer hold.

2.     Supply chain sovereignty: The move from efficiency to resilience continues. Regionalisation and vertical integration are strategic imperatives in an era of disrupted trade corridors and sanctions.

3.     Technopolitics: The weaponisation of technology—via semiconductors, AI governance, or data localisation laws—means firms must navigate compliance and national alignment.

4.     Narrative positioning: Strategic communication becomes central. Companies must articulate their values, alliances, and contributions in a world where public opinion, national identity, and geopolitical alignment intersect.

The shifting world order may lack a clear replacement paradigm, but its signals are evident. Businesses that recognise the pattern of flux, embrace adaptive strategy, and invest in geopolitical intelligence will be better positioned to thrive. In a world of blurred borders and layered complexity, agility is not optional but existential.

Key takeaways:

1.     Rethink risk. Linear models are out, scenario planning is in.

2.     Secure your supply chain. Resilience now trumps efficiency.

3.     Watch the tech fault lines. Innovation is increasingly political.

4.     Own your narrative. Geopolitics now shapes brand perception.