“The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog one big thing.”
Archilochus, 7th century BCE
Our origin story stretches from ancient poetry to Cold War think tanks, from oil shocks to democratic revolutions.
This profound line of thought was revived in 1953 by philosopher Isaiah Berlin. In his seminal essay The Hedgehog and the Fox, Berlin used the metaphor to describe two archetypes of thinkers: hedgehogs, who see the world through one unifying idea, and foxes, who draw from diverse experiences and resist simple answers.​​​​​​​​​​​​
We’ve always sided with the fox.
Isaiah Berlin
​​​​​​​Mindofafox's journey may start with Berlin, but it accelerates with Herman Kahn, the brilliant and controversial futurist at RAND, who dared to think the unthinkable. Kahn didn’t predict the future—he designed ways to reason about it. His bold use of scenarios reshaped how the world approached risk, especially in the shadow of nuclear war and global instability.
Kahn’s work deeply influenced Pierre Wack, who smuggled scenario planning out of military strategy and into the corporate boardroom.
At Royal Dutch Shell, Wack helped executives imagine alternate futures—not to predict what would happen, but to prepare for what might. His foresight was pivotal in anticipating the 1973 oil crisis, changing how businesses plan under uncertainty.​​
​​​​​​​​Enter Clem Sunter—a senior executive at Anglo American—who, with Wack, brought scenario planning to South Africa. At the height of apartheid’s unravelling and the country’s uncertain future, Clem’s use of scenarios—the famous High Road, Low Road framework—helped leaders across sectors navigate one of the most remarkable socio-political transitions in modern history.
His thinking was profoundly shaped by Berlin, whom he studied under at Oxford, and whose metaphor of the fox became a philosophical cornerstone.
In 2001, Clem Sunter partnered with successful entrepreneur Chantell Ilbury to write The Mind of a Fox. This book transformed scenario planning from an academic tool into a practical strategy model embraced by business schools and organisations worldwide.​
"I would rather be vaguely right than precisely wrong."
Pierre Wack
Herman Kahn
Foxy thinking had now entered the boardroom.
Clem Sunter
Chantell Ilbury
- Pierre Wack
​The Mind of a Fox was a bestseller, shaping a newfound appreciation for developing agile and adaptive strategic thinking rather than the static, linear models of old.
The book's success formed the foundation for further thinking. It evolved into two more seminal books by Clem and Chantell on strategy, embracing the dynamic nature of a changing environment in Games Foxes Play and seeing the long-term value of philosophical thinking in Socrates and the Fox.
Scenario planning may feel like a modern discipline, but the inherent logic stretches back across history.
In Thinking the Future: New Perspectives from the Shoulders of Giants, Clem Sunter and Mitch Ilbury, rooted futures thinking in historic wisdom:
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From the Stoics, a lesson in resilience and responding to uncertainty with calm.
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From David Hume, a challenge to blind confidence in prediction.
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From Charles Darwin, the supremacy of adaptability over strength.
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From Nelson Mandela, the importance of moral clarity, patience, and principled leadership under pressure.
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​The book’s power lies in its democratisation of foresight, making scenario thinking accessible not only to executives but to anyone grappling with uncertainty. By spotting "flags" (early signals of change), constructing plausible futures, and stress-testing strategies, readers learn to engage the future not as a forecast, but as a landscape of possibility.
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Of course, not everyone champions the fox. In Good to Great, Jim Collins celebrates the hedgehog: those who relentlessly pursue one big idea. He argues that clarity of purpose is the engine of great companies.
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But research by Philip Tetlock—who analysed over 82,000 political forecasts—tells a different story. His findings? Hedgehogs, driven by ideology, were far less accurate than foxes. The best forecasters, he found, were humble, curious, and constantly updating their views.
In short: foxes win the long game.