Clem Sunter's RED FLAG rises: Scenarios in a fractured world

Red flag: Russia, China and North Korea

When Clem Sunter first spoke of the alignment of Russia, China, and North Korea as a potential red flag, it was a provocative idea. Three nations with very different histories, ideologies, and priorities did not seem natural allies.

Yet the red flag has risen. Recently, the three leaders stood shoulder to shoulder at a military parade in Beijing. For many, it was an extraordinary moment — a striking image of defiance, cohesion, and unity.

But this was not simply a parade. It was a message. And it tells us something about why tracking flags is central to strategic thinking.

From Clem Sunter's flags to Mindofafox futures

Flags are not predictions. They are early signals — anomalies, fragments, or moments that may not seem consequential on their own but can reshape the future when seen in combination. A flag is only as powerful as the story it tells when stitched into a bigger pattern.

That is why flag-watching is the DNA of strategic intelligence: it helps leaders avoid being blindsided by events that, in hindsight, look inevitable.

The Beijing parade elevated this red flag not only by what happened but how it happened. The symbolism was choreographed with precision. The three leaders were not just present; they were presented. The visual was deliberate: unified in posture, projecting resilience, daring the world to see them not as isolated actors but as a bloc.

For the West, the implication is sobering. What once appeared to be discrete challenges — Russia in Ukraine, China in the Taiwan Strait, North Korea on the Korean Peninsula — may no longer be separable. For much of the Global South, however, the message was different: here is an alternative pole of power and partnership beyond the Western-led order.

It is in precisely these moments that the fox’s mindset becomes indispensable. Hedgehogs search for the single answer; foxes hold multiple futures in mind. Scenarios help us move beyond reaction to reperception.

Three Pathways from the Red Flag

From this moment, we can sketch at least three plausible futures:

1. Symbolism over substance

The spectacle remains largely symbolic. China treads carefully, unwilling to endanger access to Western markets. Russia depends on Beijing but gains no formal military pact. North Korea extracts marginal legitimacy but little else. The flag rises but flutters in the wind. For business, disruption continues but remains manageable. Supply-chain polarisation deepens, though slowly.

2. A tactical partnership

The relationship matures into transactional cooperation. Russia supplies energy and seeks weapons. China leverages the bloc to pressure Taiwan and secure discounted commodities. North Korea receives aid and recognition. This coalition is enough to weaken Western supply chains and embolden non-aligned states. Businesses face tighter export controls, volatile commodities, and escalating sanctions battles.

3. An operational axis

The alignment hardens into an axis of action. China supplies Russia with lethal aid for Ukraine. North Korea provides ammunition in exchange for advanced missile technology. A Taiwan crisis coincides with escalations in Europe and nuclear threats in East Asia. The West faces simultaneous crises. For businesses, the consequences are profound: fractured markets, surging energy prices, and a deeply bifurcated global economy.

Consequences for business and strategy

Whichever pathway unfolds, several implications already matter for strategy.

First, the global security architecture is under stress. NATO and US alliances could be stretched thin if crises converge. Leaders must ask whether global stability can hold when challenged on multiple fronts.

Second, geoeconomic fragmentation is accelerating. Parallel systems — BRICS currencies, alternative payment mechanisms, barter trade — are being developed to weaken dollar dominance. Businesses dependent on seamless global financial flows must prepare for parallel worlds.

Third, the Global South has become the swing vote. Countries in Africa, Latin America, and Asia are increasingly courted with offers of infrastructure, energy, food security, and digital technology. The battleground is not only military but developmental, and businesses operating in these regions will find themselves navigating new layers of influence and competition.

Finally, narrative warfare is intensifying. In this fractured world, stories matter as much as strategy. Sovereignty versus stability, multipolarity versus order — these are not abstract debates but narratives shaping legitimacy. The message sent in Beijing was as much about optics as it was about policy.

Strategic intelligence in action

The lesson for leaders is not to decide now which scenario will come true. The lesson is to build the systems that detect which way the wind is blowing. Which signals suggest symbolism only? Which point to tactical cooperation? Which indicate an operational axis in the making? Strategic intelligence is about scanning, interpreting, and acting on these shifts before they crystallise into reality.

And there is one more question that businesses must not overlook. In a world where adversaries choreograph messages of unity, what story is your organisation telling? Are you broadcasting resilience, purpose, and legitimacy — or are you leaving the narrative to others?

The red flag has risen. The scenarios are already being written. The only real question is whether you are preparing for them — and whether your own story will stand when the world fractures further.