Multilateralism is dead, and businesses are pecking at the corpse

Businesses that still frame their operational world through the lens of global commerce risk being sidelined.

The global order is no longer defined by rigid alliances or ideological blocs. Instead, it is being reshaped by agile, interest-based coalitions—minilateral groupings like QUAD and I2U2—that reflect a more fractured, pragmatic world.

QUAD is an informal partnership among the United States, Japan, India, and Australia. While not a military alliance, it is a counterweight to China’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific, coordinating efforts on digital infrastructure, critical supply chains, and AI governance.

Meanwhile, I2U2—comprising India, Israel, the UAE, and the U.S.—blends geo-economics with geopolitics, leveraging capital, technology, and market scale to drive innovation in food security, water, energy, and health. You’d be foolish to think these coalitions are temporary, reactionary responses. They are strategic laboratories, experimenting with new forms of influence and cooperation.

Geopolitical alliances are becoming more fluid, overlapping, and purpose-driven in this divided landscape. Senior executives must now ask whether they are prepared for a world where power is exercised not through global institutions, but through flexible networks of shared capability and strategic convenience.

The rise of minilateralism

This ‘minilateralism’ is emerging as a defining feature of our post-unipolar era. Unlike traditional multilateralism—slow, consensus-driven, and institution-heavy—minilateral coalitions are nimble, selective, and focused on action. They bring together countries with shared interests and complementary strengths to tackle specific challenges, from maritime security to food resilience and technology governance.

Importantly, these new alliances are reshaping the landscape of global commerce. The QUAD’s emphasis on secure maritime routes and the resilience of undersea cables is influencing the future of digital trade and logistics. I2U2’s ventures in agriculture technology and clean energy indicate new growth pathways, particularly between South Asia and the Middle East.

The common theme among these multilateral power coalitions is strategic autonomy. Middle powers are exploiting these alliances to assert independence from great power rivalry, forming transactional, high-impact partnerships that are driven more by capacity and opportunity than by ideology.For global businesses, this means that the foundations of market access, supply chain configuration, and regulatory standards are changing.

The rules of engagement are now being established by the most active coalitions, rather than the broadest ones.

So, what does this mean for business leaders?

While shifting global geopolitics may seem beyond the ambit of most business leaders, there are some things they can do:

·       Track the minilaterals, not just the multilaterals: QUAD, I2U2, and other emerging coalitions are setting new standards in trade, technology, and infrastructure. Businesses must monitor these shifts to anticipate investment patterns and regulatory trends.

·       Diversify through strategic corridors: As traditional global routes become politically fraught or economically unreliable, new corridors like the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) are gaining strategic weight. Early movers in these regions may benefit from preferential access and first-mover advantage.

·       Build scenario-informed agility: Rigid strategic planning is a liability in a fragmented world. Executives must adopt scenario-based thinking, aligning business models with multiple geopolitical futures shaped by agile, issue-based coalitions.

We are entering an age where geopolitics is increasingly defined by who shows up to solve problems, not who signs treaties. The invisible lines drawn by minilateral coalitions may soon define everything from tech standards to trade flows. For business leaders, understanding and engaging with this new geometry of power is not optional—it is a strategic imperative.

Key takeaways:

1.     Minilateralism is the new normal — Small, agile coalitions are replacing slow-moving global institutions.

2.     Strategic autonomy is rising — Middle powers are forging high-impact, interest-driven alliances beyond big-power rivalry.

3.     Follow emerging corridors — New routes like IMEC offer early access and growth potential.

4.     Monitor coalition-led standards — Tech, trade, and infrastructure norms are now shaped by those who act, not those who convene.

5.     Use scenarios to stay on track — Align strategies with multiple geopolitical futures, not a single forecast.